I'm leaving (very) early in the morning for Gordon Cook's meeting on the Architecture and Economics of IP Networks, a.k.a. the Cook-In. It looks like a full schedule, some people I know and many others I know only via email. This should be very good.
Three days of rapid pace content, mostly 15 minute segments with no overruns! Presentation were mostly high level, focused on industry insight and direction. Almost all were good or very good and some were excellent. Almost no pure product pitches. And, most important, tons of interesting people. In fact it appears there were ~220 people and perhaps as many as 250 who attended at least part of the event.
In short, one of the best events I've attended.
I was completely immersed, and besides the WiFi was misconfigured the first day, so I didn't attempt blogging. Others have done a great job. Technorati has a good list. Andy Abramson has a rundown of early media coverage although Google News has more of course.
The credit for making it all happen goes to Lee Dryburgh. Thank you!
Above photo thanks to James Duncan Davidson.
Other pictures here and here and here and here and then there are some videos here.
I'm leaving for northern California early tomorrow (Tuesday) to participate in eComm 2008 in Mountain View March 12-14 and then Spring VON.x in San Jose March 17-20. I'll be back in the office Friday March 20th.
At eComm 2008, I'm speaking on Thursday and moderating on Friday:
The Weekend
Most of my weekend is uncommitted, as yet... suggestions?
Then at VON, I'm speaking on Tuesday and Wednesday and running a session in the "Unconference."
If you are attending either of these events or live in or are otherwise in the area and interested in meeting, please send me an email using "rbt", i.e. my initials, at nmss.com.
Woman's Radio News has a great interview with Dr. Dawn Nafus about her upcoming appearance at eComm 2008.
Dawn Nafus, Ph.D., an anthropologist at Intel, discusses why a technology company would have an anthropologist on staff, and exactly what she does for them. Dawn will be speaking at the eComm Conference being held March 12 - 14, 2008 at the Computer History Museum in Mountain View, CA. Her topic will be “Context Aware Technologies” and how they can assist different cultures and countries around the world.
About 4:30 minutes into the interview, Pat Lynch asks Dr. Nafus why there are only a few women on the program at eComm and indeed at most high tech conferences. She doesn't have a simple answer but she does point out it's a myth that women's position in high tech is getting better gradually over time, at least in Silicon Valley. Silicon Valley is very young in the grand scheme of things, it has little or no history. And yet, it has reproduced the male dominated culture that was a characteristic of older industries. Now older industries are improving at a greater rate than high tech.
I just recently read Herman Goldstine's classic history of the early days of computing, The Computer from Pascal to von Neumann. Interestingly, some women play key roles, not just Ada Byron (Lady Lovelace), but multiple women during and after WWII. And when I think back to the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) that I joined as a student in the early 1970s, there were more women involved in programming, and the mathematical side of the computer industry than in traditional industries. Also my first part time job was with a small company where 25% of the software staff (1 out of 4) were women. :-)
Recent counts by VC Christine Herron of women at high tech conferences range from 13% to 18%. Many old line industries have changed. But not high tech?
I look forward to hearing Dr. Nafus speak on "Context Aware Technologies" at eComm this coming week. Hopefully I'll also get a chance to talk with her, as she mentioned some references to recent literature on women in high tech.
The Emerging Communications Conference 2008 is shaping up to be a different and fascinating event, not the least because yours truly is moderating a panel with some really interesting panelists.
What
will drive wireless innovation?
Moderator:
Brough Turner, NMS Communications
Panelists:
Jonathan Christensen, Skype
Rich Miner, Google
Christopher Allen, iPhoneWebDev.com
Chris Sacca, Angel Investor
Paul Golding, paulgolding.com
Benoit Schillings, Trolltech/Nokia
There are no operators here, nor traditional equipment vendors, so I don't expect this to be an IMS vs. Internet debate. That discussion is getting old. The folks here each represent real approaches to mobile innovation. I still look forward to controversy, but between approaches that each seem more plausible than IMS. :-)
Ignoring my bias, there are tons of other interesting people attending. As the schedule indicates, this is not your typical telecom conference.
Here's the eComm summary from the conference PR people:
eComm 2008—the inaugural Emerging Communications Conference—was born from the ashes of O'Reilly's ETel Conference to track and help drive the major disruption beginning to transform the multi-trillion dollar telecommunications industry. From industry visionaries to bleeding-edge technologies, cutting-edge academic projects to incumbent telecom players and garage-based hackers, eComm is designed as the only telecommunication forum to embrace and promote radical change. eComm is poised to make history on March 12-14, 2008, at the Computer History Museum in Mountain View. For more information and conference registration, please visit www.ecommmedia.com.
Other commentary here and here. Finally,you can get 15% off the conference registration here.
At the Emerging Communications Conference eComm 2008, I'm moderating a panel "Wireless Innovation, with or without operators." This will be a discussion — smart people from differing camps responding to (hopefully) probing questions from yours truly, and the audience. Points of view represented include Google Android, J2ME/JavaFX Mobile, iPhoneWebDev.com, Skype and Trolltech Qtopia (Nokia), plus Chris Sacca, formerly head of Google's wireless initiatives. I've been thinking about subjects and questions for the panel. As a start, I'll set down my current views, then seek others' views and questions.
2007 Breakthrough — Public discussion of "Open" wireless networks
For the first time ever, US mainstream media is talking about open handsets and open networks. It started with the iPhone launch in June, as people discussed pros and cons of the Apple-AT&T lock in. Then Google proposed, and the FCC partially adopted, a set of open access criteria for the 700 MHz auctions that are currently in progress. Finally, speculation about a G-Phone got resolved when Google announced the Open Handset Alliance and Android open source mobile phone software.
What's Next?
In the near term, we won't see open wireless Internet access at 700 MHz — that will take years. The 700 MHz spectrum doesn't even become available until analog TV is turned off (scheduled for February 2009). Then building out a network takes time, independent of whether it's WiMAX, HSDPA, EVDO or LTE. And at this point, neither base stations nor mobile devices are available for the 700 MHz band. Vendor's will talk a good story, but are unlikely to make major product investments until they know they have orders in the pipeline.
There are two areas that should drive innovation in the US wireless market over the next 24 months.
Open mobile Internet access in advance of 700 MHz services
As I've pointed out elsewhere, US competition to offer mobile Internet access is about to ratchet up significantly, as T-Mobile USA uses the spectrum they acquired in the 2006 AWS auctions to go head-to-head with AT&T, Verizon and Sprint. In 2006, T-Mobile USA spent more than $4B to buy additional spectrum that will allow them full national coverage. Then they committed another $2.7B to build out 3G mobile coverage on this spectrum. Recently, they've disclosed $10B of investment for 2007-2009. In addition to these four cellular networks, there's at least the threat of a national WiMAX network, between Clearwire and/or Sprint. Finally, WiFi access points continue to proliferate. Four plus competitors is enough to unbalance a market, so it's likely we'll see affordable flat rate data bundles that are effectively open access at some point in the next 24 months.
Handset innovation
Here's the real excitement, at least in the next 24 months. The iPhone is truly a break through device, if nothing else it's the first mobile Internet browser that really works. Every other handset vendor has embraced iPhone concepts and is scrambling to bring out their own next generation devices.
Meanwhile phones based on the Android stack should show up later in 2008. During the next 24 months we'll see if the Google initiative has a significant impact on handset software. Remember, Google doesn't have to make money on their software (as Microsoft does with Windows Mobile) or on handsets (as Nokia does with Symbian).
Finally, there's an open question of where, in the handset stack, maximum innovation will occur. John Puterbaugh distinguishes five layers where innovation might occur:
I might have separated out mobile Internet browsers and mobile AJAX as an area that deserves a layer of it's own, but you get the idea. Yes, there is no single answer for mobile application development and that's a problem, but it's also prompting an enormous amount of competition and innovation.
Do you have questions for the panel?
I look forward to a lively discussion at eComm 2008 in Mountain View California on March 14th and hope to see you there.
In the spirit of full disclosure, NMS Communications is a member of, and contributor to, the Open Handset Alliance, primarily through our LiveWire Mobile subsidiary. But then we're also active in various GSM Association working groups including contributing to the GSMA's (IMS-based) Video Share Project and we've delivered IMS handset software for Symbian, Windows Mobile and several other environments.
I'll in California quite a bit in March and April, but the highlight is my first week, when I'll be speaking at a new conference, eComm 2008, March 12-14. While the conference in new, the community is established and fascinating. eComm 2008 being put together by Lee Dryburgh, who was on the program committee for O'Reilly's eTel conferences. When O'Reilly cancelled eTel 2008, Lee took the initiative to keep that incredible community alive. He was soon joined by many others.
Click through the logo at the left for conference info. Right now there's a board of advisors, an incredible list of speakers with more on the way, a wiki and a Facebook group with 170 friends!
The first thing I look for in a conference is interesting people, then new ideas. eComm promises an abundance of each. The focus is next generation personal communications and the schedule is set up for rapid fire delivery inlcuding many 5 minute and 15 minute sessions. As far as new ideas goes, this will be a fire hose!
*** Correction: 12/21 ***
The conference is being held in the Computer History Museum in Mountain View. This easily beats the typical conference facility, but it means there are only 300 paid admissions available. Registration has opened, here. If you register before the end of 2007, the $1495 registration fee is marked down to $1195.
I look forward to seeing you there.
Some notes from the first after lunch session at Connect 2007 in Madrid yesterday, entitled Community Goes Mobile. Dave Penny (VP Biz Dev at NMS) moderated, with panelists:
The first key point is communities don't align with operators. The lead example in every market is SMS. Until there was universal connectivity, SMS never took off. David is particularly vocal that social networks have to span multiple operators to succeed. This is interesting as Yospace currently runs SeeMeTV for 3 in the UK and Look At Me for O2 in the UK and a similar service for 10 other operators in various countries.
Big discussion of charging models. If Facebook is free on the Internet, why pay for mobile access. Conclusion, you'll never get someone to pay per transaction, but you might get someone to pay an Internet access fee, especially a fixed known flat rate fee (like x per day for all day and y max for all month Internet access).
Another interesting point is that mobile operators are doing deals with Internet brands (like Vodafone UK with MySpace) because the Internet brand has more recognition than the mobile brand.
Of course there are no operator representatives on this panel to hold up their end... :-)
Interesting tidbits from yesterday's panel at Connect 2007 in Madrid entitled: The User? It was led by moderator Dean Bubley of Disruptive Analysis, with panelists:
Dean did a quick survey of the audience which showed most people were carrying 3 or 4 devices, i.e. one or two mobile phones, one PC, a camera and/or a blackberry. There is no convergence of devices. People use specific devices for specific purposes.
Piotr (who was the star of this panel) points out the dynamic process of deciding what devices you might use and how it's frequently related to your identity position. Example: your CEO just got a Blackberry, so you'd like one also. Alternately, you are a photographer, you need something more than a camera phone.
Matt says consumers are very smart. They know what they want and what they like and they are unique, each making different choices between convenience & mobility or content at different price points.
Pierfranco mentions blurring of mobile and PC, also the idea of discovery – point phone at an item and get Internet info about that item. On another note, in Italy, you can tell pre-paid from post-paid by the number – that makes your number a status symbol. 80% of Italian subscribers are on pre-paid but post-paid can be a status symbol.
Piotr points out many mobile operators know little of their customers because their customers use multiple pre-paid SIM cards. Some pay higher per-minutes costs to preserve their anonymity, but many just do it to minimize roaming expense. Pierfranco counters that this depends upon the country. In Italy, the operator knows the identity of prepaid subscribers. Also, in Italy prepaid users are not all at the low end – there are more subscribers with 300+ Euro handsets in Italy than anywhere else in Europe.
Piotr describes iPhone as a new walled garden. Matt is actually using an iPhone and views it as a poor phone but a breakthrough media device and a breakthrough way to access to the real Internet. Matt lists browsers as the key interface to access diverse information, but we still need multiple UIs. People choose the user experience to solve specific problems. Matt uses Google, Yahoo messenger, a TV, a PC and a Mac. Dean counters that the MS Windows consistency drove the PC's success. Point by audience member that the fragmentation of the mobile world holds back innovation.
I personally expect Google's Open Handset Alliance to go a long way to solving handset fragmentation, but only over a 5+ year time frame. But I was in audience and the time was up before I got a chance to chime in.
The second session at Connect 2007 in Madrid is Application Innovation with John Orlando, NMS CMO moderating and panelists:
This panel is slide presentations and covers material that's interesting, but mostly already familiar to me. So my comments will be brief... (sorry).
Gianluca's focused on video infotainment which appears to be taking off in Italy. While he's active in some really cool stuff, today's talk covered market statistics and more conventional applications.
Yospace has their "SeeMeTV" service running on 12 operators now, but David comments that it's been a struggle compared to launching a service on the Internet. If you're not familiar with SeeMeTV, it's a service that allows subscribers to upload cameraphone videos via MMS. Others can browse content that people have uploaded. It costs 30 pence or more to download a clip. The original contributor gets money everytime someone watches their clip. The revenue share is 10%. The SeeMeTV service bridges 12 operators, so contributors get cash back from users across multiple operators. Paybacks to contributors are via PayPal, not the operator. All-in-all, it's a mobile service which could be run over-the-top but, based on David's comments, they only work through operators because operator endorsed (on-deck) is the only viable approach today. Even so, they don't get customer demographics from the operators, just billing and an on deck position.
Colm from Xiam is focused on mobile advertising. Xiam's edge is in automated analysis of subscriber demographics so it's possible to target content to users when the price points is 30 cents or 1-2 Euros. On the Internet, Amazon can show dozens of potential offers, but on the mobile phone there is only space and time to make a very few offers. Currently they get 3X click through by targeted offers on mobile phones at Orange UK.
Anssi is founder and CEO at Aito is focused on providing customer analytics to mobile operators. Their software mines the operator's data to figure out the services individual customers use and the constraints and problems they encounter. The goal is to figure out specific problems that need to be fixed, both technical issues and communication issues.
Interesting, but running over slightly which killed the Q&A which would have been the best part.
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