3G's biggest success is as a dumb pipe

Thanks to Dean Bubley for pointing out this presentation by Antero Kivi on the use of 3G mobile networks in Finland.

92% of all data traffic is from PCs

Furthermore, of the 4% of traffic from Symbian devices, 79% of that is for web access and 10% is for email.  So users are paying for mobile data for the sole purpose of connecting to the Internet.

Put another way, mobile operators have failed to provide any operator-specific data application of any relevance.

Why invest another penny in IMS?

Voice telephony needs priority, but after that all people want is a dumb pipe. In a competitive market that what they'll get. So IMS is vastly more complex than appropriate.

The cost effective solution is simple (i.e. two) priorities on the radio link, softswitch-controlled circuits-over-packets for voice telephony and straight off-load to the public Internet for everything else. An IP/MPLS core network is more than sufficient.  And existing GSM voice telephony protocols are both adequate and appropriate for voice telephony.  Existing GSM signaling is already being carried over Sigtran over IP, so the pieces are falling in place.

What I've just described matches what I've seen of China Mobile's new 3G backbone.  If true, that means the Chinese network equipment providers (Huawei, ZTE, etc.) are well positioned to win 3G business in high growth emerging markets where costs are key.

It certainly sounds bad for IMS.

Comments

[Jose Miguel Cansado]

Hello Brough
I just discovered your blog. It is great and I just subscribed.

The point in this post is very good, with Internet access from the PC being the main success of 3G.
3G is making mobile broadband a reality, specially with UMTS PC Cards and new flat rates for data. With the poor usability of current browsers in handsets, it is no surprise that their share of use is reduced, something that should improve again with iPhone's Safari and Android's WebKit based browser.

http://tech-talk.biz/2008/05/15/at-last-mobile-web-thanks-to-iphone/

Still, why do you think IMS is not worth the investment? With true broadband IP access, wouldn't Skype or IMS benefit from it?
Once you have proper wireless data rates, IMS becomes key for telcos to own the subscribers and provide them value-added services. For the user, IMS brings a richer communication, Skype-like, only that this time carrier-grade.

Skype service is absolutely great, but would you rely purely on it as a replacement of your mobile line?
Wouldn't you trust an Skype-like service (with presence, IM, network address book, high-def videocall, file-sahring, etc) if offered by AT&T, Vodafone or Telefonica?

http://tech-talk.biz/2008/05/07/ims-vs-skype/

[Brough Turner]

Jose, The issue with IMS is complexity. IMS will end up influencing the way mobile operators provide voice services over IP backbones and parts of IMS will be deployed, for example HSSs (Home Subscriber Servers). However, the complexity of maintaining fine-grained per-session state is too much overhead when there are only two applications of value: voice telephony and Internet access.

Economically, IMS was justified because it would give the operator a way of controlling individual IP sessions and thus billing on a per session basis. Clearly consumers want a dumb pipe, not a separate billable event for every TCp connection.

[Jose Miguel Cansado]

Thanks Brough for your answers. I agree with you that consumer want a dumb pipe, specially techies and early adopters.

Still for the mainstream, Telcos have a strong say in managing the complexity of technology for users. e.g. IPTV vs. Internet TV. Guaranteed QoS vs lower resolution and buffering. If IPTV is bundled with exclusive content, the battle is far from lost for the Telco.

Similarly for IMS, the mainstream will end up having a SIP phone, or an IMS handset with IM, High-Def video calls, Presence, etc, only when it is offered by a Telco with a guarantee that it will work 99.999%.

Like in the OS world, Linux and open source are great, but mainstream users would still prefer to pay for Windows or for a Mac.

As you say, IMS is still challenging due to the complexity, but I do believe it is coming, specially with alternative carriers such as WiMAX.

[Press Digital]

The point in this post is very good. 3G is making mobile broadband a reality, specially with UMTS PC Cards and new flat rates for data. With the poor usability of current browsers in handsets, it is no surprise that their share of use is reduced, something that should improve again with iPhone's Safari and Android's WebKit based browser.