Communications

The Perfect Phone

Lee Dryburgh initiated a great thread in the Emerging Communications public group entitled What would your perfect phone be? There are 14 messages there at this moment with a lot of good ideas, but my first thought was the term "phone" is too limiting.  Indeed, some of the correspondents' ideas also go far beyond the idea of a telephone.  Here's what I want and fully expect to see, eventually.

The Basics

It's a mobile computing device that, as a platform, is at least as open as today's computers. 

It has unconstrained or "open" mobile connectivity to what today is called the Internet, i.e. it's able to exchange arbitrary information with any other device that's willing to participate.

I like Phil Wolfe's description of the included sensors:

Sensor overload. Movement, location, biometric, barometric, full radio frequency detection including notice when I'm being RFID scanned, Affymetrix-style food safety tests. The more my phone is aware of my condition and my environment, the smarter the apps that follow.

and style.

Wearable. Fashion, baby! I should have more phones than shoes, all doing the same things but with looks and form factors that fit my mood, my social set, my wardrobe, my activity. Form factors I want: pocket watch with fob, lapel pin, ear ring, tattoo, shoe lace, scarf, tie clasp, cuff links, mood ring, brass knuckles.

Identity and Security

This device will be my wallet and keys, so I need an easy way to guarantee it's only available to me.

Coordinating Communications

It's a computer so it can run my communications applications.  But the most important application is not telephony as we've understood it over the past 120 years.  Top priority is managing information about availability and current circumstances -- mine and that of people I want to interact with.  I want more than what's commonly called "rich presence."  I want location, current activities, health, and anything and everything that can be determined from a plethora of available sensors.

Then I want total control over who can follow my circumstances, who they think I am (multiple identities!) and what they see as my current circumstances.  Like Phil Wolfe, I may want to be able to lie about my current circumstances, at least to some people.  As Phil puts it:

When I'm out picking up porn instead of groceries, attending a dissident political meeting, climbing a wall during a combat mission, investigating a crime family, or meeting with my divorce lawyer, very very few people need to know. In fact, I want my phone to have selective memory and occasional amnesia.

Availability and current circumstances are critical to coordinating communications.  This is an issue that traditional telephony has never addressed, but with the advent of instant messaging, texting and Skype, most of my voice calls are preceded by a quick text exchange.  In many cases the text exchange obviates the need for a voice call.

Is there an overlap with social networking?  Absolutely.  Has anyone cracked the code yet?  Hardly. However we are beginning to see attempts to aggregate and filter our profiles, friends and communications across multiple social networking services.  There's a big need, a lot of activity and thus strong reason to expect big progress.

Communicating

Of course I want all options;  text, voice, video, 3D holographic virtual presence.  More importantly, I want the ability to select live two-way communications, broadcasting and asynchronous messaging, some of which may be near real time.  For example, there are occasions when voice is best but a live call is not needed or not practical.  That's why Voice SMS service is so popular (where it's available).

I also want to be able to archive (or not) all communication.  Think "life streaming."

The Digital Life

Finally, I expect my device to facilitate life logging and a digital life as proposed by Gordon Bell and Jim Gremmel.

When?

Obviously we're talking decades for some of this, but most people will have portable webcam capabilities within a few years and hard drive storage has pulled ahead of most people's ability to create or copy content.  Gordon Bell's full vision may be a few years off, but lifeblogging is real today.

What's the monthly cost?

Today we pay for telephone service.  In the future, I'm likely to pay for open mobile Internet connectivity, i.e. a mobile dumb pipe, but only as a fall back to open shared wireless connectivity built from the bottom up via user-to-user wireless connectivity.

I may also choose to pay people to provide other parts of this functionality as services, but everything I've described is based on devices and software which I will be able to own.

 

The impact of cellphones on the price of grain in Niger

On the plane from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur I caught up on some more reading, this time a paper by a Berkeley economist,  Jenny C. Aker,  "Does Digital Divide or Provide? The Impact of Cell Phones on Grain Markets in Niger" (January 15, 2008).

Long time readers may recall my post about Robert Jensen's 2006 study of the advent of cellphones in the Indian state of Kerala and the positive impact they had on fish markets.  Aker's study doesn't have the beautiful graphs that Jensen provided, but the quantitative results are similar.

Due partly to costly information, price dispersion across markets is common in developed and developing countries. Between 2001 and 2006, cell phone service was phased in throughout Niger, providing an alternative and cheaper search technology to grain traders and other market actors.  ...we use a unique market and trader dataset from Niger that combines data on prices, transport costs, rainfall and grain production with cell phone access and trader behavior.

The results provide evidence that cell phones reduce grain price dispersion across markets by a minimum of 6.4 percent and reduce intra-annual price variation by 10 percent. Cell phones have a greater impact on price dispersion for market pairs that are farther away, and for those with lower road quality. This effect becomes larger as a higher percentage of markets have cell phone coverage.

Niger is a landlocked country in western Africa.  It's extremely poor and most of the population are subsistence farmers.  Among the interesting conclusions of this study is the introduction of cellphones produced the equivalent of a 3% to 8% decrease in the price of grain together with an increase in grain traders income.

Particularly notable was the largest differential (8%) occurred during a food crisis in 2005 when people with access to cell phones fared better than those without.

Models for Muni WiFi completely neglect technology evolution

Modern travel means interminable waits, but it's a good time for reading. While waiting to check luggage in Amsterdam, I finally read Wireless Pittsburgh: Sustainability of Possible Models for a Wireless Metropolitan-Area Network by Jon M. Peha, published a few weeks ago as a working paper of the New America Foundation.

The good news — it’s full of interesting cost estimates and projected subscriber take rates based on specific demographics in Pittsburgh, Minneapolis and Philadelphia.  The paper also examines a range of business models, in detail, from complete monopoly to structural separation (wholesale–retail) to let-the-market-take-care-of-it.

The bad news — all of the models turn out to be extremely sensitive to revenue assumptions, i.e. to the estimates of subscriber adoption and willingness to pay.

The flaws in this study

All of the models compute a net present value based on five years of stable operations, but there is no mention of technology evolution or adoption rates of competing broadband services, i.e. cable and telco (DSL or FiOS) services since this is a US study.  Technology is evolving at a great rate.  You can’t bet on stability.

During the past five years we saw WiFi go from 11 Mbps to widely deployed 54 Mbps systems and bleeding edge (pre-standard 802.11n gear) systems doing well over 100 Mbps.  The last five years also saw costs decline to the point where we see widespread deployment of WiFi by individual consumers, a significant percentage of which are running open WiFi hotspots. 

On a recent drive through three different neighborhoods in Portland Maine, I was interested in looking up real estate information on the web.  On each of a half dozen occasions, I was able to find a open WiFi hotspot within one city block of deciding I wanted to connect.  Last weekend I was in north New Hampshire and stayed at small local motel in Littleton, NH.  They had no Internet on offer, but a quick check for WiFi signals revealed two within range of our room.  If you don’t like my anecdotal information, look at the WiFi hotspots that have been mapped by Navizon, some examples here.  The picture is very different from five years ago.

You can’t bet on stability.

What might happen with WiFi in the next five years?  The latest WiFi specifications add multiple input, multiple output (MIMO) support, additional modulations and other goodies.  As low cost WiFi routers incorporate these advances we’ll see speeds go over 300 Mbps, but more importantly MIMO technology increases both range and directionality.  This means overlapping systems work better (despite their overlap) and the signals from isolated systems reach further.

If you’re worried today’s open systems will be locked down, then spend your time thinking about schemes like FON which offer more secure ways for consumers to share WiFi bandwidth.

If you’re worried consumer solutions won’t reach the inner city, perhaps someone needs to relook at what’s already been deployed, and then forecast what might happen over the next five years, given the cost of a basic PC is approaching that of a television and both Cable and Telco are pushing triple play bundles. 

You can't expect to usefully model Muni WiFi if you ignore both technology evolution and the consumer behavior that results.

 

I'm off to Asia

Just leaving this evening for Saturday in Amsterdam, but then it's on to Kuala Lumpur for Sunday evening, Monday and Tuesday, Hong Kong Tuesday evening and Manilla for Wednesday evening through Saturday morning March 1st.

Right now the schedule looks rather packed, but if you are in any of those cities and are interested in meeting, please email me.  Something may be possible.

eComm 2008 in Mountain View March 12-14

The Emerging Communications Conference 2008 is shaping up to be a different and fascinating event, not the least because yours truly is moderating a panel with some really interesting panelists.

What will drive wireless innovation?

Moderator:
Brough Turner, NMS Communications

Panelists:
Jonathan Christensen, Skype
Rich Miner, Google
Christopher Allen, iPhoneWebDev.com
Chris Sacca, Angel Investor
Paul Golding, paulgolding.com
Benoit Schillings, Trolltech/Nokia

There are no operators here, nor traditional equipment vendors, so I don't expect this to be an IMS vs. Internet debate.  That discussion is getting old.  The folks here each represent real approaches to mobile innovation.  I still look forward to controversy, but between approaches that each seem more plausible than IMS.  :-)

Ignoring my bias, there are tons of other interesting people attending.  As the schedule indicates, this is not your typical telecom conference.

Here's the eComm summary from the conference PR people:

eComm 2008—the inaugural Emerging Communications Conference—was born from the ashes of O'Reilly's ETel Conference to track and help drive the major disruption beginning to transform the multi-trillion dollar telecommunications industry. From industry visionaries to bleeding-edge technologies, cutting-edge academic projects to incumbent telecom players and garage-based hackers, eComm is designed as the only telecommunication forum to embrace and promote radical change. eComm is poised to make history on March 12-14, 2008, at the Computer History Museum in Mountain View. For more information and conference registration, please visit www.ecommmedia.com.

Other commentary here and here.  Finally,you can get 15% off the conference registration here.

US Mobile broadband access about to become extremely competitive

Gary Kim has a nice news update today on T-Mobile USA's plans for 3G in the US.

T-Mobile USA will launch commercial 3G services this summer, finally. The company blames spectrum issues for the delay (3G was supposed to launch mid-2007). T-Mobile invested $4.2 billion in 2006 to more than double its spectrum holding in the top 100 U.S. cities it serves.

If you read my column in Internet Telephony magazine last October entitled US Wireless Broadband to be Extremely Competitive, you know T-Mobile USA's launch of 3G is the market action that will tip us over from oligopoly to rampant competition.  By 2009-2010 we will have four credible national mobile broadband networks.  As I argued in last October's column, that will drive open Internet access regardless of any political or regulatory actions.

More on fishermen with mobile phones in Kerala, India

Two years ago, Robert Jensen presented work he had done on the economic benefits of mobile phone adoption among fishermen of the Kerala state in India.  Jensen showed that mobile phone adoption reduced price volatility in the fish markets and was able to show quantitative benefits for fishermen and for the fish consuming public in Kerala.  This blog post has a summary, some graphs and the pointers to his initial presentation.

Jensen's paper on this topic was subsequently published by the Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 122, Issue 3, August 2007.

Now there's new data from Kerala on the transition that occurred with the advent of mobile phone service.  In Volume 4, Issue 1 (Fall 2007 ) of Information Technologies and International Development, Reuben Abraham reports (PDF, registration required) the results of a series of focus groups conducted at 12 locations in Kerala India and interviews with nearly 200 local people associated with the fishing industry.  Using this data, he provides a good view of the fishing supply chain in Kerala, details on what happened when mobile phone service became available, and a nice summary of the implications for policy makers:

This article has provided an example of the value of communications technology, especially mobile phones, in making markets work more efficiently. This research also firmly establishes the role of ICTs in rural markets as one that reduces transactions costs. Investments made with the aim of reducing transactions costs are more likely to succeed than amorphous, ill-defined attempts to bridge the “digital divide.”

What I found interesting was the complexity of the fishing supply chain with separation between fisherman, boat owners, fishing cooperatives, brokers/commission agents and wholesale and retail fish merchants.  Apparently the economic benefits measured so far have come with little change in this complex supply chain.  However, Abraham notes:

... the power the middleman holds over the fishermen due to the monopoly on price information has lessened somewhat. The free flow of information ensures the fishermen get the opportunity to drive a harder bargain than before.

It will be interesting to see what changes happen over the next 5-10 years as ownership of capital assets (like boats) evolves and the market adapts to the new flow of information.  I'll bet that, increasingly, middlemen will be cut out and consumers will see even lower prices.

Similar motivations for mobile and Internet usage in rural Zambia

Over the years I've uncovered a number of serious studies of the social and economic impact of mobile phone adoption in emerging markets.  In fact, my list of links (embedded in various blog posts: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8) has become a reference for several people, for example here. I've been somewhat less organized regarding the social and economic impact of Internet access, but I've resolved to track such references as well. 

Here's something I stumbled on this weekend -- a study by Paula van Hoorik and Fred Mweetwa of TNO Information and Communication Technology in the Netherlands, entitled "Use of internet in rural areas of Zambia."

What struck me in this study was the parallels between the social and economic benefits they found and those conventionally associated with the adoption of mobile phones.

Based on our study, the most important social benefits are:
• Internet enables people to keep their network and enlarge it by communicating with friends, family and others
• Internet enlarges the world of people in rural areas by giving access to information
• Internet brings knowledge and supports education

The most important economic benefits are:
• Reduction of commute time
• Saving money in a lot of different ways, such as only traveling to pick up something when you know it is actually there instead of having to return multiple times
• Bringing new opportunities and using them, such as learning new farming methods or opening an internet café to make a living.

Most studies of mobile phone adoption in emerging markets, especially amongst the poor, show that social reasons - communicating with friends and family - come first, economic advantages come second.  And among both social and economic advantages, the ability to eliminate journeys, i.e. save time by not having to walk to the next village to ask a question, is extremely important.

I suppose I shouldn't be surprised.  At root, they are both communications technologies and our use of such technologies is driven by basic human needs that are remarkably similar, for everyone, everywhere. 

iPhone, Android, 700 MHz — What maximizes wireless innovation?

At the Emerging Communications Conference eComm 2008, I'm moderating a panel "Wireless Innovation, with or without operators."  This will be a discussion — smart people from differing camps responding to (hopefully) probing questions from yours truly, and the audience.  Points of view represented include Google Android, J2ME/JavaFX Mobile, iPhoneWebDev.com, Skype and Trolltech Qtopia (Nokia), plus Chris Sacca, formerly head of Google's wireless initiatives.  I've been thinking about subjects and questions for the panel.  As a start, I'll set down my current views, then seek others' views and questions.

2007 Breakthrough — Public discussion of "Open" wireless networks

For the first time ever, US mainstream media is talking about open handsets and open networks.  It started with the iPhone launch in June, as people discussed pros and cons of the Apple-AT&T lock in.  Then Google proposed, and the FCC partially adopted, a set of open access criteria for the 700 MHz auctions that are currently in progress.  Finally, speculation about a G-Phone got resolved when Google announced the Open Handset Alliance and Android open source mobile phone software.

What's Next?

In the near term, we won't see open wireless Internet access at 700 MHz — that will take years.  The 700 MHz spectrum doesn't even become available until analog TV is turned off (scheduled for February 2009).  Then building out a network takes time, independent of whether it's WiMAX, HSDPA, EVDO or LTE.  And at this point, neither base stations nor mobile devices are available for the 700 MHz band.  Vendor's will talk a good story, but are unlikely to make major product investments until they know they have orders in the pipeline.

There are two areas that should drive innovation in the US wireless market over the next 24 months.

• Affordable open mobile Internet access as a result of competition, i.e. in advance of 700 MHz
• Further innovations in the handset space

Open mobile Internet access in advance of 700 MHz services

As I've pointed out elsewhere, US competition to offer mobile Internet access is about to ratchet up significantly, as T-Mobile USA uses the spectrum they acquired in the 2006 AWS auctions to go head-to-head with AT&T, Verizon and Sprint.  In 2006, T-Mobile USA spent more than $4B to buy additional spectrum that will allow them full national coverage. Then they committed another $2.7B to build out 3G mobile coverage on this spectrum.  Recently, they've disclosed $10B of investment for 2007-2009.   In addition to these four cellular networks, there's at least the threat of a national WiMAX network, between Clearwire and/or Sprint.  Finally, WiFi access points continue to proliferate.  Four plus competitors is enough to unbalance a market, so it's likely we'll see affordable flat rate data bundles that are effectively open access at some point in the next 24 months.

Handset innovation

Here's the real excitement, at least in the next 24 months.  The iPhone is truly a break through device, if nothing else it's the first mobile Internet browser that really works.  Every other handset vendor has embraced iPhone concepts and is scrambling to bring out their own next generation devices.

Meanwhile phones based on the Android stack should show up later in 2008.  During the next 24 months we'll see if the Google initiative has a significant impact on handset software.  Remember, Google doesn't have to make money on their software (as Microsoft does with Windows Mobile) or on handsets (as Nokia does with Symbian).

Finally, there's an open question of where, in the handset stack, maximum innovation will occur.  John Puterbaugh distinguishes five layers where innovation might occur:

1. Operating Systems and Mobile Platforms - Symbian, RIM, Windows Mobile, Palm, Java FX Mobile, Android, LiMo
2. Application UI Frameworks - Series 60, Qtopia, uiONE, GNOME / GMAE, KDE, GTK
3. Runtime environments - Java, JavaScript, Flash, BREW, and various Mobile Internet Browsers
4. Media Players - Windows Media Player, Quicktime, Real, Ogg Vorbis
5. Applications - Celltop, Yahoo! Go, Nokia WidSets, and various Mobile AJAX “players”

I might have separated out mobile Internet browsers and mobile AJAX as an area that deserves a layer of it's own, but you get the idea.  Yes, there is no single answer for mobile application development and that's a problem, but it's also prompting an enormous amount of competition and innovation.

Do you have questions for the panel?

I look forward to a lively discussion at eComm 2008 in Mountain View California on March 14th and hope to see you there.

In the spirit of full disclosure, NMS Communications is a member of, and contributor to, the Open Handset Alliance, primarily through our LiveWire Mobile subsidiary.  But then we're also active in various GSM Association working groups including contributing to the GSMA's (IMS-based) Video Share Project and we've delivered IMS handset software for Symbian, Windows Mobile and several other environments.

The end of Yahoo, and the end of Microsoft

If you are not familiar with Umair Haque &/or don't regularly read his Bubble Generation blog, read Umair's views on this potential merger. 

He begins with "Yahoo + Microsoft isn't just a mistake - it's a double suicide."

It gets better. 

And his argument is independent of the culture clash between the these two companies (a subject eloquently raised by his first commenter).